After a strong 4-0 win over the Republic of Ireland yesterday, Spain and Croatia are sharing the top two spots in Group C with each team having four points.
Italy ranked third with two points, while the Republic of Ireland was definitely eliminated after two losses.
The draw with Croatia put Buffon’s Italy in a dangerous position in the final round of the group stage.
To maintain hope of continuing to the quarterfinals, Italy must win at all costs against Coach Trapattoni’s Republic of Ireland in the final round.
If Italy wins and the Spain-Croatia match results in a draw, all three teams will finish with the same five points.
The ranking of each team and the next two tickets will then be decided by the goal difference in the head-to-head matches between the three teams involved (in this case it will be 0 because the teams are all tied) and then the number
That means that if the Spain – Croatia match results in a 2-2 draw, these two teams will enter the quarterfinals thanks to the better number of goals in direct confrontations.
In 2004, in Portugal, Italy also fell into the same dangerous situation as now.
In 2004, Italy with many stars like Zambrotta (left), Vieri (right) and even Cassano (who sat with his face in tears) was also in the same dangerous position as now and was immediately eliminated.
However, if the Spain – Croatia match draws 1-1, the goal difference of these two teams and Italy after all three group stage matches will be used to determine rankings.
Italy will then progress if they beat the Republic of Ireland with every score having a difference of at least two goals, except 2-0.
Ideally, Italy must beat the Republic of Ireland with a score of 3-1.
If the Spain – Croatia match ends in a scoreless draw, Italy only needs to win against the Republic of Ireland to advance, and can even finish first in the group.
Italy will progress to the quarter-finals of Euro 2012, if they beat Ireland and:
– Spain – Croatia match did not draw.
– Or the Spain – Croatia match drew 0-0.
According to UEFA regulations, in case two or more teams finish with the same score, the rankings will be determined according to eight criteria.
1. Higher points are obtained in direct matches.
2. Goal difference between the teams involved (if there are more than two teams with the same score).
3. Number of goals scored in direct confrontations between the teams involved.
4. Goal difference in all group stage matches.
5. Number of goals scored in group stage matches.
6. Position of each team on the rankings of UEFA member national teams.
7. Level of fair play.
8. Draw lots.
Minh Kha